The Value of Contrarian Thinking - Just another day in the mortgage mess

Today, I read on CNBC, "This recession was simply worse than the information that we and other forecasters had back in last fall and early this winter," Romer said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32551478

After reading this article today, it is my opinion that President Obama and his Administration should have followed Warren Buffet's advice months ago, which was to focus on the Economic war. If this Administration misread the figures last fall and early winter, then what else have they misread? This is the question I ask myself. To instill this kind of doubt seems rather irresponsible as Leaders, in my opinion. Therefore, as Jim Cramer once said, "Do not let the media confuse you". Now, I am going to say, "Do not let this Administration confuse you".

This Administration has proven one thing thus far. They are "consistent" with misreading economic data, which might explain why the markets are not responding to its news negatively, today. I do not think Chairman Bernanke's reappointment was that powerful to steer us away from the truth. Here is the ugly truth: This Administration has become predictable in the sense they seem to consistently misread economic data; therefore, if the markets expect this from our Administration, then it may not respond negatively to the news anymore. Conclusion: It has become predictable. No matter how sad that may seem, it might actually work to one's benefit. The one thing this Administration underestimates, in my opinion, is the contrarian thinker out there. Thank goodness! If I had listened to this Administration and the past one, I would not have bought stock last December and earlier this year. I knew they were misreading the economy; therefore, I bought a stock based on a book I read instead, and it has gone up 50% year to date.

Furthermore, if this Administration misread the economic data, then was this their Achilles heal? Think about it, this Administration moved forward forcing energy, education, healthcare, and reform onto a public faced with chaos, fear, panic, concern, and distress. This Administration overwhelmed the public with all its changes, further scaring many Americans. I really believe the anger at these town hall meetings has nothing to do with anger; it has to do with feelings of fear, hurt, and disregard. Maybe I am naive. However, if a person is scared and they know their family’s livelihood is at stake, how would you react? If your pain has gone unheard, how would you react? If your needs have gone unmet, how would you react? If you have been unemployed for a year, how would you react? People are overwhelmed and scared, which I blame the Chief of Staff for this mistake, who apparently wanted to do everything at once, according to that New York Time’s article. It was unkind to throw everything at once to the American people, in my opinion. I do not think President Obama is unkind. However, I do believe this Administration failed in "Mastering the Art of Timing". Therefore, I wished this Administration would redefine itself immediately. If it could do this, then maybe the polls might go back up; economic confidence might thrive; and they will regain the power they so desperately want in the right way.

The one thing I learned in life is there is a difference between arrogance and confidence. Arrogance is someone who thinks they have it, but cannot walk the talk. Confidence is someone who has it, and his or her walk displays this. He or she walks the talk.

Therefore, my eyes and ears are staying focused on the Federal Reserve. I refuse to let this Administration confuse me. I want to support the efforts of this Administration but as long as they continue to misread the facts, I cannot. Moreover, how do you misread the facts from last fall/winter, when this country’s financial backbone was near complete failure?

Consider this analogy: Basketball entails two teams in order to play. It seems as if the two current teams playing basketball are as follows:

Team #1: Federal Reserve and the public

Team #2: President Obama, his Administration, and Congress

Right now, this country does not seem united. Team #1 should consist of the Federal Reserve, the public, the President, his Administration, and Congress. Team 2: Our competitors (China, India, etc.)

As long as this country is playing basketball against itself, it will never thrive to levels it should. We need Team #1 to consist of all of us. How do we get there? We need President Obama to succeed. He has to succeed, no matter if you voted for him or not. If he fails, we all fail. This financial crisis was so massive that there is no room for anyone’s failure, in my opinion.

Just a thought…

Stay tuned…I have more to share. Just another day in the mortgage mess!