Shattered Confidence - Just another day in the mortgage mess

After the election, President Obama had stated the stock market was like a casino. I almost agree with him. Think about it, if "so called" experts appear on the news, giving their views on where this economy is going when, in fact, none of us truly knows. Are we gambling on speculation? If so, why? None of us has a crystal ball.

Today, some experts came out stating there is too much optimism in the stock market, and vice versa. Some experts have stated in the past, we are going to experience a V-shaped recovery, a W-shaped recovery, and/or an L-shape recovery. No one seems to have the same conclusion. Therefore, as a consumer/investor, why would I spend money? Why would I invest in an economy where "so called" experts cannot even be on the same page? Therefore, leaving many of us, who are not experts, in a state of uncertainty?

From my standpoint, some “so called” experts seem self-serving because how do we know if this "so called" expert has something to gain if the market declines? We would never know as consumers.

Trust was shattered these past twenty-four months.

Without knowledge, there is fear. Without education, there is fear. Knowledge is power. If this is the case, then many consumers are feeling powerless because we do not know and understand. This financial crisis hit hard, therefore, leaving many scattering for shelter that did not exist, at this time, last year. This government failed us all, in my opinion. This is why I have such a hard time believing anyone when it comes to this market, except for what the NBER "National Bureau of Economics" and the Federal Reserve says. Jim Cramer said it brilliantly yesterday, "Do not let the media confuse you."

It seems as if confusion drove this economy off a cliff. It seems as if confusion drove many consumers to fear. It seems as if confusion drove many banks to the brinks of failure. Last year was traumatic for many, including myself. This was why I turned to Chairman Bernanke’s book last year. I had to try to put the pieces of a shattered puzzle back together, so I could create a path for me to follow. Chairman Bernanke’s book offered me the truth and guided me as well, thus far.

Trust was shattered for many of us, here on Main Street. Think about it, how many of us wanted to sell our stocks back in October 2007, but had a stockbroker who said, “No, hang on for the long-term”, only to lose 40-50% if not all of your money? Where is the accountability? How many had a stockbroker who recommended a stock, only to have it fail completely? I understand freedom of speech, but when someone is an expert; the rules are different it seems.

If consumer confidence were psychological, then why would these "so called" experts not do something to protect the integrity of the consumer? Who is working for the consumer's best interest right now? A consumer protection agency does not seem as if it will be in the best interest of consumers and/or our economy, if it is politicized. However, Sheila Bair is a power-player, in my opinion. http://www.cnbc.com/id/32418884

Furthermore, to politicize a consumer protection agency, does not seem in the best interest of consumers, in my opinion. What seems to be in the best interest of consumers, is having trustworthy leaders. Having trustworthy experts, is in our best interest. Having trustworthy CEOs and Executives in a system that is supposed to protect our lifesavings and shareholders, is in our best interest. Have a trustworthy Congress is in our best interest. I could go on, but this is too long.

In conclusion, if consumers are 70% of our economy, then it seems the consumer is more of a systemic threat to the U.S. economy right now; therefore, it has been my opinion that shopping vouchers are just as important as spending billions of dollars on bailing out banks. Think about it, if shopping vouchers were availabe right now, no one would be concerned about "back to school" shopping. It would calm the markets, and the markets would have a year before the next back to school season.

Shopping vouchers is not just about giving cash to consumers, as some have reported. It is about protecting our economy from a potential systemic threat. When are those in power going to wake-up?

We need consumers spending, however, if someone does not understand stocks, the economy, money, and/or what happened last year, then one's instinct will be to save and protect their families/livelihoods’. It seems obvious, consumers are going to take an approach similar to a fascist society; they are going to do what is good for them, not society as a whole. If consumers get their information from the news/media, then predictability may not be there for consumers to spend. Could the media threaten a recovery without being aware of it? I love the news/media. I am the #1 news junky, but I have a basic understanding of the market where as many of us do not. Fear seems to be the driving force amongst many consumers, which seems they could do what is in their best interest and not in the best interest of society. Consumers are going to save their money, which is the most logical thing to do, smart! However, for an economy driven by consumer spending, it seems this mentality could possibly be a systemic threat to our recovery.

I asked myself these questions today, after I heard some experts state the stock market is too optimistic. If businesses are making sound decisions when it comes to their bottom line, then why is the stock market too optimistic? If businesses made it thus far, even when the economy hit ground zero, then why is the stock market too optimistic? If housing is beginning to stabilize, then why is the stock market too optimistic? If a recovery is on the horizon, then why is the stock market too optimistic? If subprime is out of the mortgage industry, and banks are beginning to make profits, then why is the stock market too optimistic? If extended unemployment claims are declining, then why is the stock market too optimistic? If some businesses are giving back pay cuts, by raising the employee's income back to normal, then why is the stock market too optimistic? If the Federal Reserve is doing everything in its power to get us to a recovery, then why is the stock market too optimistic? We need shopping vouchers, in my opinion.

Just a thought.

Stay tuned…I have more to share. Just another day in the mortgage mess!